Real estate prices in Miami. What will happen?

The property prices in Miami fell , then during the last year have risen. Now what will happen, will fall or rise ?

In recent months have reported an increase of between 15 and 20 % in the rates

Miami properties when compared with the same period last year. According to the report of Douglas Elliman properties located on the coast have increased 20.9 % in the second quarter of this year and when you factor in all villas Miami prices gained an average of 17.7 % over the same quarter the previous year.

Prices remain upwards due to reduced inventory of properties . The reason that the inventory is decreased due to lower sales of properties in bank gets , that because of the scandal known as robo- signing scandal that virtually froze sales of properties at auction . This happened in late 2010 when banks were apparently not complying with regulations when finished off a property at all sales in banking gets interrupted and have reviewed and amended procedures. In the past, the sale of properties in bank gets represented a high proportion of total sales ( 60 % last year vs. 40% this year ) and that part of the reduced inventory , who are selling now are owners who purchased their properties before the housing bubble, those who recently bought property in bank auction and those who can afford to sell at loss .

I predict now that most of the experts is that the banks will begin to reduce its inventory of properties (those who have mortgages on their books but have not executed to take the real estate ) and that could push prices back towards low. I can not say with certainty that prices will not go down but I anticipate that , with all other variables being equal , the prices in the real estate market in South Florida do not come down substantially when the banks put on the market their properties.

My observations come from being constantly on the street :

When you visit condo managers you realize that apartment owners with delinquent accounts with condominium associations have declined substantially . Usually owners who do not pay their bank loan not pay the maintenance fee of the building. Even some associations have been able to reduce their maintenance fees that have improved the collection .

Although there have been fewer bank shots , banks have improved their process of " short sales " ( selling short - the bank or the lender allows the property is sold for a lesser amount than is owed ​​on the mortgage assuming a loss on the loan ) which has helped to remove some of the inventory that the bank needs to resume .

Once these properties enter the market at auction sale will be quickly absorbed because there is enough pent-up demand from buyers.

My biggest concern is given to the possible impact that may have on prices in the next two years due to sales that are currently doing projects in pre - construction. I recognize that most of these projects are demanding between 30 and 70 % deposit from buyers before the building is completed. However, between 2014 and 2015 there will be a lot of condos / apartments available on the market again.