No, that housing prices have not bottomed out, they will continue to fall. "Since 2013 there has been a poisoning data and speculations not based on improving the real estate sector." They said, of much significance, is Fernando Rodriguez y Rodriguez de Acuna, president of RR Acuña & Associates in presenting its Yearbook Spanish Real Estate Market Statistics 2014.
According to this consultant, the housing prices could fall between 5% and 7% annually over the next three years, in addition to the settings you have already suffered the sector.
According to Acuña, in the housing market "selling selling cheaper" and in a sector where there is still a total of more than 1.7 million surplus of unsold homes, the pressure on prices can only be a downward. There are exceptions. This surplus will be absorbed, probably in two or three years in Madrid or in coastal areas of Alicante and Malaga. However, even in these places there is enough to expect a big spike in prices from 2017 conditions.
Overall, the report notes that banks still have 400,000 houses 23% of the surplus-to be given out under the watchful eye of the ECB, which should push them to sell at a discount. At the same time there is an oversupply of housing that comes from growing heirlooms, in line with the progressive aging of the population, it will also make the heirs close sales quickly prioritizing the price.
On the demand side, the employment situation suggests a slow recovery in employment at rates below 2%, with a greater weight of temporary contracts and part-time and ever lower wages. Conditions that do not provide large increases in transactions.
Turnaround, but ...
At the same time, the consultant believes that demand from non-resident aliens "not decisive" and, in the case of access to finance, the entity estimates that "the market will go better because slowly flowing the credit ", although so far only the most creditworthy flowing segments.
Thus, although from Acuña y Asociados is a "change in trend" in the housing market, because in 2014 they will start channeling certain imbalances (unemployment, mortgages, etc..), It is believed that persistent conditions suggest even "very slow" of the stock and therefore in long-term recovery. reduction
By 2016, the report expects these purchases to rebound until 332,000 operations, compared to a slight increase in finished houses, to 52,000 properties; a decrease of awards and payments in kind, to 59,000, and a rebound of estates, with a total of 149,000.
During these three years, the stock is thus reduced by 155,000 homes, about 9%, to 1,572,000 homes. In this circumstance, the entity estimates that the surplus will not be absorbed until mid 2022, but will continue until 2025 or perhaps never delete, being regions with declining population in some areas. "To say that is running the stock is nonsense," Rodriguez riveted.
Acuña & Associates talk about "collateral damage" in the process of absorption of surplus, beginning not that where the ground it "will not be worth anything" is reduced. In addition, on the source the commercial register, the report notes that about 30% of real estate developers are in a situation of dissolution, about 9,000 institutions, representing 30% of credit extended by banks and SAREB.
Your final solution would be in the medium term "an avalanche of transfer of real estate assets on the banking sector, which would force even more sales down by the banks," said Acuña & Associates.